With just a 48% drop from its $57.9 million opening weekend, “Kung Fu Panda 4” now has a two-weekend total of $107 million domestic and is well on pace to blow past the $186 million domestic run of fellow animated franchise feature “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” a year ago. Globally, “Kung Fu Panda 4” has a total of $176.5 million and will be released next weekend in China, where the film has enjoyed success in the past but where Hollywood now has little sway over audiences since the pandemic.

“Dune: Part Two” could still take the No. 1 spot from “Kung Fu Panda 4” with an estimated $29.1 million in its third weekend, once again keeping its weekend drop exceptionally low at just 37%. It now joins “Barbie” and “Wonka” as the third Warner Bros. release in the past eight months to cross $200 million in domestic grosses with a $205 million running total, and it will cross a half a billion dollars worldwide in a matter of days as it sports a running global total of $494 million.

Lionsgate’s “Arthur the King” is the sole newcomer to the top 5, taking $7.5 million this weekend from 3,003 theaters and meeting the low end of pre-release projections. The good news for the film is that it has been well received by moviegoers, with an A on CinemaScore, while critics give it a more mixed 63% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Starring Mark Wahlberg as an adventure racer who befriends an injured dog during a grueling competition in the Dominican Republic, the film is reported to have a $20 million budget and aims to bring in older audiences over the coming weeks as an inspirational alternative to “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.”

A pair of films in their second weekend, Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s “Imaginary” and Angel Studios’ “Cabrini,” round out the top 5. “Imaginary” will turn a modest theatrical profit as it adds $5.5 million in its second weekend to bring its running domestic total to $19 million. “Cabrini” added $2.9 million to bring its 10-day total to $13 million.

Farther down the charts, a trio of specialty releases rolled out nationwide this weekend, though none had exceptionally strong results. The best of the bunch was A24’s crime thriller “Love Lies Bleeding” starring Kristen Stewart, which expanded to 1,362 theaters after a limited release last weekend and grossed $2.5 million.

With a tense LGBT romance and plenty of gory crime at its center, “Love Lies Bleeding has Rotten Tomatoes scores of 92% critics and 88% audience. It is hoping to find traction with younger arthouse audiences as it continues to expand nationwide next weekend.

Bleecker Street’s “One Life” was released in 983 theaters and grossed $1.7 million. The film stars Anthony Hopkins in a true-story retelling of Nicholas Winton, a London broker who became a national hero after the story of his rescue of hundreds of Jewish children from the Nazis was told on the BBC show “That’s Life!” The film has been well received, with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 88% critics approval and 92% from audience members.

The worst-performing of the trio was Focus Features’ “The American Society of Magical Negroes,” grossing $1.25 million from 1,147 theaters. The satire about a secret society of Black people who use their magical powers to keep white people comfortable received mostly negative reviews after its Sundance premiere, holding a 30% score on Rotten Tomatoes.

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In its second weekend, “Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently estimated to earn $31.5 million, dropping just 46% from its $57.9 million start. Fueled by families who haven’t had an animated movie to see in theaters since “Migration” during the holidays, as well as by some nostalgic millennials who grew up seeing the first “Kung Fu Panda” back in 2008, this DreamWorks sequel is set to blow past $100 million in domestic grosses by the end of the weekend.

“Dune: Part Two,” meanwhile, is just behind “Kung Fu Panda 4” with an industry-estimated third weekend total of $28.5 million. That’s another strong hold as it drops just 34% from its second weekend.

The acclaimed Denis Villeneuve film may take a steeper drop next weekend as it will lose IMAX and other premium formats to Sony’s “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire,” but will have surpassed $200 million in domestic grosses by the end of this weekend. Three of the last four films to pass that mark have been Warner Bros. releases, with the others being “Wonka” and “Barbie,” while the fourth went to former WBD director Christopher Nolan with Universal’s Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer.”

The sole newcomer to the top 5 is Lionsgate’s “Arthur the King,” a true-story inspirational film starring Mark Wahlberg as an adventure racer who befriends a wounded dog during a grueling competition in the Dominican Republic. The film earned $3 million from 3,003 theaters and is set to earn an opening weekend of $7-8 million against a $20 million budget.

Similar to Channing Tatum’s 2022 film “Dog,” “Arthur the King” is hoping to leg out among an older, female-skewing audience subset that shows up to inspirational films — particularly ones involving animals. While critics were only mildly positive with a 64% Rotten Tomatoes score, the film earned an A from opening night crowds on CinemaScore.

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Back in 2004, “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” won Best Picture as one of a record-tying 11 Oscars and became, to date, the last Best Picture winner to also be the highest grossing film at the box office that year.

In the two decades since, no Best Picture winner has grossed more than $500 million at the global box office until “Oppenheimer,” which rode director Christopher Nolan’s overwhelming global popularity, its critical acclaim, and yes, the “Barbenheimer” memes, to a $957 million global box office total.

In between “LOTR” and “Oppenheimer,” the highest grossing Best Picture winner is Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech,” which made $424 million worldwide in 2010. Only two other winners, “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2008 and “Green Book” in 2018, have grossed more than $300 million worldwide in that time period.

Since the victory of “Return of the King,” the Oscars and the Academy members have seen their taste become increasingly distanced from the franchise-driven nature of the modern box office. But “Oppenheimer” bucked that trend, winning critics, industry insiders, and global audiences alike, becoming the third-highest grossing film of 2023 behind only “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and fellow Best Picture nominee “Barbie.”

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While not at the level of the $60 million start the first “Kung Fu Panda” earned before inflation adjustment back in 2008, it tops the $41.2 million opening that the animated series’ third installment earned in 2016.

Universal is banking on the animated film having long legs over the next month or so as kids cycle through their spring breaks. With no major animated films hitting theaters until “The Garfield Movie” on Memorial Day weekend, “Kung Fu Panda 4” won’t have any direct competition throughout the spring. Reception has also been generally positive with an A- on CinemaScore and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 69% critics and 86% audience.

In second place is “Dune: Part Two,” which is set to earn an excellent $43.5 million second weekend. That is just 47% down from the Warner Bros./Legendary film’s $82 million opening weekend and is still above the $41 million opening weekend of the first “Dune” in 2021.

Along with excellent word-of-mouth and a lack of major general audience competition, “Dune: Part Two” is benefitting from a strong interest in seeing the film on Imax and other premium formats, which is contributing to the film’s legs as some moviegoers are waiting to see the film until high-demand PLF screenings of the film become available at a convenient time. The film is projected to have a 10-day domestic total of $154.5 million, having already blasted past the $108.8 million domestic run of the first film in its first week of release.

The Lionsgate/Blumhouse horror film “Imaginary” is in third, earning $3.6 million from 3,118 theaters and trending towards a $9.5 million opening, a half-step below projections for a $10 million start. Reception for the film has been lackluster with a C+ CinemaScore and a 31% Rotten Tomatoes critics score, but Blumhouse’s typical low-budget strategy will allow the film to make back its money.

In fourth is Angel Studios’ “Cabrini,” the follow-up film from “Sound of Freedom” director Alejandro Monteverde. The biopic about the Catholic missionary who became the first U.S. citizen to be canonized by the Vatican is tracking for a $7.5 million opening weekend from 2,840 theaters. Along with typically strong reception from Christian audiences with an A on CinemaScore, “Cabrini” has earned positive reviews with a 90% RT score.

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Along with the critically praised “Dune: Part Two,” which has grossed $89 million domestically over four days, a pair of bears will arrive on the big screen. There’s the goofy panda bear Po in Universal/DreamWorks’ family film “Kung Fu Panda 4,” and there’s the monstrous teddy bear Chauncey in Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s “Imaginary.”

“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. The first “Kung Fu Panda” opened to $60 million before inflation adjustment in 2008, while “Kung Fu Panda 3” opened to $41 million in 2016.

“Imaginary” is tracking for a third place opening on the charts with $10-14 million, which would put it in the same neighborhood as Blumhouse’s January release “Night Swim,” which opened to $11.7 million and grossed $51.8 million worldwide against a $15 million budget.

What’s most important for theaters is that all three of these films has their own lane. On opening weekend, “Dune: Part Two” took 64% of its audience from moviegoers over 25, with the 25-34 cohort taking the largest share. While Gen Z may start coming in thanks to the sequel’s immensely strong word-of-mouth, it will likely be the same core of millennials and Gen Xers driving interest in “Dune,” particularly those waiting for open screenings on Imax and other premium theaters to become available.

“Kung Fu Panda 4,” may get some turnout from nostalgic millennials, but it will of course rely primarily on families for turnout. While Illumination’s “Migration” didn’t set the box office ablaze, it legged out decently en route to a $123 million domestic/$277 million worldwide run against a $72 million budget.

That shows that the appetite for family films is still strong, and Universal is counting on that as “Kung Fu Panda 4” plays throughout March and into April while kids cycle through spring school breaks.

“Imaginary,” meanwhile is a PG-13 horror film, and that means its target audience is teens and Gen Z adults under the age of 25. It’s that demographic that has driven recent titles like “M3GAN” to breakthrough hit status, and even if the word-of-mouth on “Imaginary” isn’t strong enough to get it that far, Gen Z turnout should be strong enough to turn a modest theatrical profit.

The best-case scenario for theaters is that all three films continue to find sustained turnout among their core demographics into the latter half of March, when sequels to “Ghostbusters” and “Godzilla vs. Kong” will try to bring in four-quadrant turnout heading into the spring. Strong opening weekend and holdover totals are both needed for a healthy theatrical market, and at least for the duration of March, the films on the slate have the potential to provide that.

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If Denis Villeneuve’s sequel once again beats projections on Sunday, it could more than double the $41 million domestic opening that the first “Dune” grossed in October 2021. That was considered a strong start at the time given the film’s day-and-date release on streaming, COVID-19 concerns keeping older moviegoers home, and the sci-fi film’s dense source material.

But Villeneuve, Legendary and Warner Bros. have turned Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel into a true blockbuster, with “Part Two” enjoying incredible critical and audience praise with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score, 5/5 from general audiences on PostTrak, and an A on CinemaScore. The end result is the highest opening weekend ever for director Denis Villeneuve as well as for stars Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson and Austin Butler.

Audience demographics for “Dune” skewed towards millennials and Gen X moviegoers, with 64% of audiences over the age of 25 and the 25-34 age demographic having the largest opening day turnout at 34%. As expected, premium formats took up nearly half of the film’s ticket sales at 48%, with Imax alone taking 23% with $18.5 million grossed this weekend.

With next weekend’s competition being a family film — Universal/DreamWorks’ “Kung Fu Panda 4” — and a horror film that will likely cater primarily to Gen Z — Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s “Imaginary” — “Dune: Part Two” will have a clear lane for itself as it takes its excellent word-of-mouth tries to leg out through March.

The film is set to easily exceed the $433 million global run of the first “Dune” and become Villeneuve’s biggest box office hit by a wide margin. That’s good news for Legendary as it covered 80% of the film’s $190 million production budget, with Warner Bros. covering the remainder and handling distribution.

In a distant second is Paramount’s “Bob Marley: One Love,” which is still holding decently given the competition with $7.4 million in its third weekend. With $82.7 million domestic and $146 million globally, the film is already set to turn a modest profit theatrically and is hoping to serve as an alternative to the bigger spectacles hitting theaters in March.

Lionsgate/Kingdom Story Company’s “Ordinary Angels” is in third with $3.8 million, giving the film a 10-day total of $12 million as it is close to making back its production budget. Sony’s struggling “Madame Web” is in fourth with $3.2 million, giving it a total of $40 million domestic and $90 million worldwide after three weekends against an $80 million budget.

Fathom Events completes the top 5 with its release of episodes 7-8 of Angel Studios’ “The Chosen: Season 4,” grossing $3.1 million from 2,215 locations. That’s a step down from the $3.5 million grossed by episodes 4-6, but down from the $6 million that the first three episodes grossed during its run.

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That’s the highest opening weekend since the $80 million opening of “Five Nights at Freddy’s” in October and lifts overall domestic grosses above $100 million for the first time since the last weekend of 2023.

It’s also well above the $41 million opening weekend of the first “Dune,” which opened in October 2021 amidst COVID-19 concerns and with a day-and-date release on streaming.

With its immense action scenes and tragic love story, “Dune: Part Two” has enjoyed a critical and audience reception even stronger than that of “Dune: Part One” with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 94% critics and 95% audience to go with an A on CinemaScore. By comparison, “Part One” earned RT scores of 83% critics and 90% audience to go with an A- CinemaScore grade.

With this start, “Dune: Part Two” is well on its way to passing the $433 million global theatrical run of its predecessor, though how far it goes will depend on how much it can expand its audience with this word of mouth against upcoming competition. But next week’s releases — the family film “Kung Fu Panda 4” and the horror film “Imaginary” — likely won’t have significant overlap.

In an effort to increase interest among audiences intrigued by the acclaim for “Dune” but who had not seen “Part One” yet, Warner Bros. re-released that film in theaters and licensed it to Netflix to stream in the leadup to the release of “Part Two.” We will see in the coming weeks how much that adds to this blockbuster’s legs.

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Comparisons to recent Thursday previews are not exact as that figure for “Dune 2” includes a Feb. 25 advance Imax screening that brought in $2 million, but it is above the $10.5 million that “Oppenheimer” earned in Thursday previews last July before earning an $82.4 million opening weekend. It’s also more than double the $5.1 million preview total that the first “Dune” earned in October 2021.

Riding a wave of pre-release buzz with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and gushing social media buzz from early screening attendees, “Dune: Part Two” is the great sandy hope for movie theaters that have weathered a brutal February at the box office. Two months into the year, annual domestic grosses have only reached $852 million, down 21% from 2023.

Significant competition lies ahead later in the month with films like “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” and fellow Legendary film “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire,” but with its overwhelmingly strong word-of-mouth, “Dune: Part Two” is in line to surpass the $433 million global theatrical run of its predecessor.

The first “Dune” also racked up six Oscar wins, so the spectacularly crafted “Dune: Part Two” will likely be a hot topic of conversation for the rest of the year.

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The third “Paw Patrol” movie is getting a prime late summer slot on July 31, 2026, while “TMNT 2” will hit theaters on Oct. 9, 2026.

Both animated films were solid box office successes for Paramount last year, with “Paw Patrol 2” grossing $202 million worldwide against a reported $30 million budget while “TMNT: Mutant Mayhem” grossed $180.5 million against a $70 million budget.

But for both films, the big money is in merchandising, as the “Ninja Turtles” franchise cleared $1 billion in merch sales in 2023 around the release of “Mutant Mayhem.” “Paw Patrol” is also a huge seller among kids, reporting $8 billion in merch sales between 2014 and 2019.

Both films will play a larger role in Paramount’s efforts to expand its footprint in theatrical animation through Paramount Animation under the leadership of president Ramsey Naito. Other films set for release include “Transformers One” this September and new films from the “SpongeBob SquarePants,” “Smurfs” and “Avatar: The Last Airbender” series in 2025.

“Paw Patrol 3” is the first major animated title to enter the summer 2026 slate, and is staking out the late summer spot that “Mutant Mayhem” took last year. In doing so, Paramount will distance itself from any films competitors like Pixar, Illumination or DreamWorks that may move in to June or early July.

“TMNT 2,” meanwhile, will try to bring in family audiences and hardcore “Turtles” fans in the autumn several weeks prior to Thanksgiving weekend when Walt Disney Animation has historically released a movie. While Disney has not announced what that movie will be, there’s a good chance that the previously announced “Frozen 3” could take that November 2026 spot.

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In October 2021, amidst the uncertainty of the COVID-19 box office recovery period, “Dune: Part One” earned an opening weekend of $41 million. Now, “Part Two” is expected to do even better, with distributor Warner Bros. conservatively projecting $65 million while rival distributors predict an opening of $75 million or higher.

It’s a remarkable achievement for Warner Bros., production partner Legendary, and especially for Denis Villeneuve. A classic sci-fi novel notorious for being extremely difficult to adapt as a movie is set to become the biggest box office success for a filmmaker whose critical acclaim hadn’t translated into mass audience success the way it has for the likes of Christopher Nolan or Jordan Peele.

The unadaptable novel

“Dune,” written by Frank Herbert and first published in 1965, was a novel that some of the most famous directors who have ever lived struggled to wrangle onto the big screen. Arthur P. Jacobs of “Planet of the Apes” fame tried to make a film out of it, as did Alejandro Jodorowsky and Ridley Scott. All failed.

Then, in 1984, David Lynch finally released an adaptation of “Dune” that, while becoming a cult favorite in some circles, was a critical and commercial bomb at the time that even Lynch disowned it.

Villeneuve, meanwhile, went from a hot name on the Canadian indie film scene to a star genre filmmaker thanks to acclaimed films like “Sicario,” “Arrival,” and “Blade Runner 2049.” The first two were modest box office hits, but “2049,” a Warner-distributed title, shared the same disappointing fate as the first “Blade Runner” with $259 million grossed against a $150 million budget.

But “2049” solidified the relationship between Villeneuve and Warner Bros. that they first forged on his well-received 2013 thriller “Prisoners,” and with Legendary holding the film rights to “Dune,” Villeneuve got the opportunity to adapt one of his favorite novels as a two-part cinematic epic. At a time when theaters were still emerging from the pandemic and the box office looked precarious, it wasn’t clear whether audiences who had never heard phrases like “Bene Gesserit” and “Kwisatz Haderach” would give “Dune: Part One” a shot.

Arrakis hits the big screen

It turns out they did. Lured by a stacked cast led by Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya and featuring stars like DC alum Jason Momoa, “Dune: Part One” successfully sold itself as a big screen event and grossed $108 million domestic and $433 million worldwide in 2021, a new career record for Villeneuve.

That’s especially impressive considering that “Dune,” like all of WB’s 2021 films, was released simultaneously on HBO Max to reach moviegoers still uncomfortable with returning to theaters due to COVID-19.

And while the box office still hasn’t fully returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, audiences have more than shown that they will turn out to a quality blockbuster, raising hopes that “Dune: Part Two” can outperform its predecessor not just on opening weekend but throughout its theatrical run.

Those hopes have gotten even stronger after the incredibly strong reception “Part Two” has received from critics, earning a spectacular 97% score on Rotten Tomatoes compared to 83% for “Part One.” Meanwhile, Fandango reports that presales for “Part Two” are outpacing those of “Part One.”

That’s not the only advantage “Dune” enjoys. With Chalamet riding high off the holiday success of “Wonka” and Zendaya enjoying huge popularity among the 18-35 crowd for her work on “Euphoria” and the MCU “Spider-Man” films, the two leads are key to drawing in audiences unfamiliar with “Dune.”

Any Zendaya fans disappointed that the actress’ screentime was limited in “Part One” will get all they can handle in “Part Two,” as Chani becomes the emotional core of the story watching Paul rise into a religious figure among the Fremen thanks to his mother’s manipulation.

Chalamet, meanwhile, is the centerpiece of many of the film’s numerous and intense action set pieces as all the setup of “Part One” pays off. With an ensemble cast taking part in the sort of blockbuster spectacle that hasn’t been seen in theaters in a couple of months, “Dune: Part Two” will try to draw in a diverse audience with various selling points that can sustain grosses even against competition like Sony’s “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” (arriving March 22) and fellow WB/Legendary release “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (arriving March 29) later this month.

Getting caught up

Beyond opening weekend, the big question is whether Warner Bros. will be able to expand the audience for “Dune” beyond those who saw “Part One” in theaters.

Last year, we saw a successful attempt to expand a series’ audience with Sony’s animated sequel “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which grossed $690 million worldwide after its 2019 predecessor, “Into the Spider-Verse,” grossed $384 million. In the intervening years, strong word-of-mouth led to new viewers who missed that first installment in theaters discovering it on Netflix, building theatrical interest for the sequel.

Warner Bros. has put in the work to do the same with “Dune,” re-releasing “Part One” on Imax earlier this month and licensing the film out to stream on Netflix so that moviegoers looking to get caught up could do so even if they aren’t subscribed to the studio’s own service, Max.

And watching “Part One” is key for “Part Two” — the sequel picks up moments after “Part One” left off and is very much a continuation of the same story.

Drought buster

After a rough winter that was lifted only somewhat by hits like “Wonka,” movie theaters seriously need “Dune: Part Two” to be the start of renewed, consistent turnout from audiences. Ironically, the film is in this release slot because of the SAG-AFTRA strike, with Warner Bros. and Legendary agreeing to push the movie from its initial November 2023 release date in the hopes that the strike would end and allow the film’s starry cast to promote it.

Indeed, Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Austin Butler, Josh Brolin, Rebecca Ferguson and Anya Taylor-Joy have hit the red carpet circuit hard, so Warner Bros.’s decision to delay the film to allow cast participation looks to have paid off.

Now, the sequel can take advantage of the long tentpole drought and stand tall as the biggest event release in theaters over the next week. From there, the best case scenario for exhibitors is that strong, sustained turnout for the other sequels hitting theaters this month, along with support from “Bob Marley: One Love” as a feel-good alternative to all the flash and bang, can build momentum for a spring and early summer moviegoing period that won’t have the usual momentum from a Marvel movie to boost the market.

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